A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
